In many ways, while our technologies are already 4G, our philosophies are still 1G. We have our cell phones and everything they symbolise, technological wizardry nothing short of magic, but we have yet to leave Plato's cave. Read more of this excellent article on ethics- science and the rest.
Over 60 repondensts participated in this crowdsourced trends overview. Interesting to note is that on top of the list stands that 2010 will be the year where Mobiile Internet breaks through. Other trends on top of the list : augmented reality, realtime, location based. A lot of references around social media as well, Read the complete report on the link 5Dutch)
1. Messaging: While SMS is still growing in both developing and developed markets it has still a long way to go in terms of increasing application2peer revenues and integrating it with enterprise applications. However, many mobile operators have stopped innovating in this area and expect the SMS revenue gravy train to continue without putting any concerted efforts. As it has been proved in other domains such as mobile apps, third party application and content providers can benefit by taking the lead and developing vertical market services. 2. Mobile Payments: Consumers still have an appetite for purchasing digital content and services using premium SMS/WAP and now that tighter regulations have kicked out the subscription services cow boys it is the best time to enable payment services for higher value branded content. This market is still fragmented hence needs some more competition which can scale up to provide global services. We think that 2010 will see strong demand for mobile commerce. 3. Mobile Advertising & Marketing: This market is growing exponentially and has room for many more regional and vertical advertising networks. The mobile advertising sector is ripe with M&A activity and the big internet players are fighting for advertising real estate. However, it is still early days and the gold rush has just begun. 4. Digital Content: There is still a strong demand for music, games, videos and other value added services. This market may be going through some changes in Europe but developing markets of Asia, Africa and Latin America are still experiencing a higher consumption of such services. There is room for super retailers and copy right aggregators who can control regional markets. 5. Mobile Applications: Contrary to the sceptic chatter that mobile apps are a passing fad, the mobile apps market is still in its infancy and is on a high speed trajectory. The initial mobile apps are mere proof of concepts and extension of existing branded services. However, the real innovation is yet to begin and with smartphones gaining prominence on a global basis. Wireless Expertise expects smartphone pricing to come down and many new players to enter this market creating a new ecosystem for applications and services. 6. Social Networking, Chat & Dating: Social Networking is still growing with more specialist brands joining in and existing brands strengthening their product offerings. Brand and operators always shy away from admitting that chat services and dating are also big contributors to the rise of premium revenues. 7. Machine to Machine Messaging, Telematics and Telemetry: The transport, logistics and utility sector are investing heavily in mobile enabling their remote assets. However, there are very few credible application and network service providers for this sector. The demand is being catered via bespoke solutions which do not always scale up. There is room for new specialist vertical application providers and also cross geography network providers to join the market. 8. Voice Applications: Developing markets are experiencing great increases in revenues generated by voice applications and portals. While developed markets have gone cold on voice, voice applications are an unexploited opportunity and a new generation of downloadable and hosted apps are entering the market. 9. Location based services: This is a high growth market with a lot of demand and innovation. Augmented reality apps, mapping and navigation provide opportunities to integrate with existing enterprise and consumer applications. However, somebody needs to come up with a good business model that makes money and does not give away the services for free. 10. Mobile Broadband & 3G Applications: 3G services are growing with the increasing sales of dongles (3g modems / USB’s) and compatible handsets. However, the increase in 3G penetration has not yet seen a corresponding increase in applications, content and services which take advantage of the speed and access that 3G offers. We believe there is opportunity to build 3G specific services and generate untapped revenues.
Rudy De Waele has brougt together a compilation of forecasts for the next 10 years, a collaborative document of 37 different people from throughout the mobile and IT industries. #m2020
As everyone is into predictions, here are my three own ones
1/ First virus type dialers to be installed on smartphones and subsequent billshocks for end-user
2/ Mobile satellite phones are coming back in the picture
3/ Location based applications on mobile phone become common ground
But most importantly, 2009 was the year of "good enough" (why do I need this high definition stuff if this cheap one does the job as well?) ; 2010 will become the year of "too bad": meaning sorry it does not work any more, or I just want more quality and your product is not up to it.
And, in terms of wishful thinking, for 2010 Mobile Monday will be the center point of the Belgian mobile Value chain -:)
Whart are the predictions for 2010 according to Strand consult. Here the headlines, more in the link:
The operators will use the financial crisis to focus on right sizing.
The regulation of the Telco industry is and will continue to be a nightmare.
The infrastructure market will become tougher and will see an increased focus on the Chinese way of working
The smart phone market is growing - but not due to demand from customers, but due to a shift in technology.
The broadband market will be bloody - mobile operators will dominate the up to 5 Mb broadband market.
The Value added Services market experiences The moment of truth.
Customers will retain power and receive more for less money.
The role of the media in 2010 - good journalism is facing tough times.
ZAPFI is a city wifi network launched in Bruges. it aims to further cover the cities with mobile data over wifi. Interesting presskit
Apple has launched a beautiful phone with a fantastic user interface that has had a number of technological shortcomings that many iPhone users have accepted and defended, despite those shortcomings resulting in limitations in iPhone users’ daily lives.
When we examine the iPhone users’ arguments defending the iPhone, it reminds Strand Consult of the famous Stockholm Syndrome - a term that was invented by psychologists after a hostage drama in Stockholm. Here hostages reacted to the psychological pressure they received by defending the people that had held them hostage for 6 days.
The Must-Have App of the Year Awards celebrate the best mobile applications in Ovi Store from the past year and the developers who created them.
Consumers - and developers - will have the chance to vote for their favorite apps of 2009. You will decide which apps for use on Nokia devices truly are the “Must-Have Apps of the Year.”
To learn more about the Must-Have App of the Year Awards, click on the link below (or copy and paste into your browser) to check out the exclusive video launch announcement (filmed at a secret location earlier this week):
http://blogs.nokia.com/dailyapp/appawards/
Voting begins next week on Monday, 14 December, and lasts until the following Monday (22 December).
A quite nice program (French) of Mobile Monday media partner AWT (Agence Wallonne de Télécom) about recent developments like mobile applications. Also an excellent opportunity to understand how to position yourself to participate at Barcelona World Congress. You deserve that!
the creative stores
